13 December 2022
In November 2022 Ukrainian companies exported 384k tons of soybeans, which was much higher than in previous months.
In total since the beginning of Y2022 Ukraine exported 1.6M tons of soybeans, by 60% higher y-o-y. In the same period soybeans crush has been stable y-o-y, while soybean oil export made 213k tons, stable y-o-y as well.
Main reasons of such dynamics – relatively good soybeans harvest in Y2021 and higher soybeans price vs. grains prices which means the lower share of transportation costs per 1 ton for soybeans vs. grains.
In Y2021 total soybeans crop in Ukraine made 3.5M tons (+25% vs. Y2020 – due to record-high soybeans yields at 2.64 t/ha). Soybeans export in MY2021/22 made 1.4M tons, another 1.6M was crushed.
So, taking into account active Ukrainian soybeans export in September-October (463k tons for two months), we can note that as of beginning of November there were almost no Y2021 harvest stocks of soybeans in Ukraine (by our estimations). So in November Ukrainian companies mainly exported soybeans of new harvest.
In Y2022 total Ukrainian soybeans harvest made 3.7M tons, so export potential for the season 2022/23 can be estimated at 2M tons.
As for soybean oil it’s export is stable at 20k tons per month. We do not expect significant changes in volumes in coming months. We also note good profitability of soybeans crush during last months – record-high for the last years.