10 July 2017
According to customs statistics data in June 2017 Ukrainian sugar export made just slightly above 6k tons. In total since the beginning of current season Ukrainian companies exported almost 740k tons of sugar for USD 365M.
Monthly Ukrainian sugar dynamics since the beginning of current season looks as follows:
In line with our expectations (taking into account that during last 3-4 months local sugar price has been considerably higher vs. international one, while sugar stocks in Ukraine became relatively low, as a result of active export during previous months).
In any case in MY2016/17 sugar export from Ukraine has been significantly higher vs. even the most optimistic expectations in the beginning of the season in September-October (which stood at 500-550k tons).
It is unlikely situation with export will be the same in new season and main reason of it Ц low international sugar prices, which as of now are by almost 30% lower than they have been a year ago.
As for general export potential, firstly we note that total sugar beets sown area in Ukraine in Y2017 made 310k ha (vs. 284k ha in previous year). Total sugar production can be preliminary estimated at 2M tons, close to Y2016 level, we can expect certain decrease of sugar beet yields vs. current season. As a result, we can estimate sugar export potential for new season at about 600k tons.