1 December 2022

Despite the issues with Ukrainian grains corridor in the first half of the month, November grains export statistics looks good.

According to preliminary information from Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture, in November 2022 wheat export made 1.7M tons (2M tons in October), corn export – 2.5M tons (2.3M tons in October), barley export – 360k tons (332k tons).

In total since the beginning of MY2022/23 Ukraine exported 17.8M tons of grains vs. 25.9M tons a year ago and 21.5M tons in MY2020/21.

Prolongation of agreement on Ukrainian grains corridor operations till the middle of March is favorable for short-term perspectives of Ukrainian export, so the focus is shifting more to corn harvest.

By the end of November Ukrainian farmers harvested corn from below 60% of total planned area with the total output of below 15M tons (vs. last year’s record of 42M tons and 33M tons average for the last five years). Due to unfavorable weather conditions it’s possible that significant volume of grains will not be harvested till spring.

It means that under current levels of stock Ukraine can export till the end of the season up to 8-9M tons of wheat and 9-10M tons of corn.

Total Ukrainian wheat export potential in the current season – 15M tons, while for corn we have quite big uncertainty due to unclear harvest.

General Ukrainian grains export statistics for the last several years is available here.

Ukrainian grains growing statistics (corn, wheat, sunflower seeds, soybeans - sown area, yields, total output) is available here.