2 October 2022

In September Ukraine exported almost 4.3M tons of corn, wheat and barley.

According to preliminary information from Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture, in September wheat export made 1.75M tons (by more than two times higher m-o-m), corn export – 2.1M tons (+36% m-o-m), barley export – 432k tons (181k tons in August).

In total despite still closed ports in Mykolaiv, Ukrainian grains export volumes almost reach pre-war years levels. Along with it, already in September grains export was much higher vs. target of Ukrainian government set after Odessa ports de-blocking (3M tons).

Key question at the moment – if grains corridor from Ukrainian ports will continue to operate. We have few doubts for its working in October, but going forward situation remains much more uncertain.

Anyway if to speak about Ukrainian grains export potential for the current season we estimate it as follows. Wheat – 13-15M tons (in addition to 3M tons already exported since July), i.e 1.5M per month till June on average. Corn – 30-32M tons (if crop will reach expected 28M tons and taking into account current stocks of about 10M tons), i.e. 2.5-3M tons per month.

General Ukrainian grains export statistics for the last several years is available here.

Ukrainian grains growing statistics (corn, wheat, sunflower seeds, soybeans - sown area, yields, total output) is available here.