Ukrainian Industries

16 January 2017

Ukrainian Y2016 agri-commodities export digest

In Y2016 Ukrainian export of sunflower oil and meal in money terms made almost USD 4.456bln, which is about 12% of total Ukrainian export. Growth vs. previous year was 17%.

Along with it value of sunflower oil and meal Ukrainian export in last year was not record-high for the modern history of Ukraine in Y2014 export value of sunflower seeds processing products in money terms made USD 4.489bln. Though in natural terms (tons) sunflower oil export in Y2016 (4.8M tons) was by 23% higher than in previous year and by 11.5% higher than in Y2014.

Taking into account current projections for Ukrainian sunflower oil export in current season (September16 August17) at 5.2-5.3M tons, we can expect record-high export of sunflower seeds processing products in Y2017 both in natural (tons) and money (USD) terms.

In line with harvest dynamics (relatively low harvest in Y2015, so low supply in H1 2016), in Y2016 Ukrainian corn export declined vs. previous year. For wheat and soybeans dynamics is positive: Ukrainian wheat harvest was good in two last years, while export of soybeans was much more active in Q4 2016, after record-high soybeans crops collected in current season.

Because of good corn harvest of Y2016 we can expect increase of corn export figures in Y2017, while for wheat, barley and soybeans dynamics will largely depend on crop of new season.

Ukrainian export figures for main agri-commodities in natural terms (k tons) during last four years are represented on the following chart and in the table below:

Ukrainian agricultural products export

k tons Y2013 Y2014 Y2015 Y2016 Change in 2016/2015, %
Sunflower Oil 3 209 4 344 3 938 4 842 23.0%
Sunflower Meal 2 873 3 918 3 687 4 105 11.3%
Rapeseeds 2 347 2 036 1 435 994 -30.7%
Soybeans 1 492 1 676 2 199 2 736 24.4%
Soybean Oil 82 122 154 153 -0.6%
Soybean Meal 21 144 262 334 27.5%
Corn 16 729 17 558 19 049 17 286 -9.3%
Wheat 7 762 10 545 13 454 17 922 33.2%
Barley 2 339 4 169 4 629 4 802 3.7%

As for prices dynamics, weighted-average export price in Y2016 declined vs. previous year by 4.9%, largest contributors were wheat (its average export price decreased by 9%, while the share in total export is 20%, so influence on general figure is large), barley (price fell by 16.5%, though its share in total export is less than 7%, so impact on final result is restricted) and sunflower meal (the same situation as for barley price declined by 14%, but its share in total export is 7%). Factually apart from soybean oil, average price of each type of presented commodity decreased in Y2016, results are presented in table below:

USD per 1 ton Y2013 Y2014 Y2015 Y2016 Change in 2016/2015, %
Sunflower Oil 1 022 820 769 765 -0.5%
Sunflower Meal 270 237 214 183 -14.4%
Rapeseeds 510 429 397 394 -0.7%
Soybeans 497 421 367 360 -1.8%
Soybean Oil 902 787 695 725 4.4%
Soybean Meal 571 509 393 347 -11.7%
Corn 229 191 158 154 -2.8%
Wheat 244 217 166 152 -8.9%
Barley 246 203 166 139 -16.5%

Interesting to note is that if we compare export prices for Ukrainian agricultural commodities in Y2016 vs. Y2013 (world agri-commodities prices started their downward cycle in H2 2013), the largest fall was demonstrated by barley (-43.6%), soybean meal (-39.2%) and wheat (-37.7%). Better dynamics was shown by oilseeds: sunflower oil (-25%), soybeans (-27%) and rapeseeds (-23%).

Results for Ukrainian agri-commodities export during FYs2013-2016 in money terms (USD M) are represented in following table:

USD M Y2013 Y2014 Y2015 Y2016 Change in 2016/2015, %
Sunflower Oil 3 281 3 560 3 028 3 705 22.4%
Sunflower Meal 776 929 788 751 -4.7%
Rapeseeds 1 197 873 570 392 5.0%
Soybeans 742 705 807 986 22.2%
Soybean Oil 74 96 107 111 3.7%
Soybean Meal 12 58 103 116 12.6%
Corn 3 833 3 356 3 008 2 654 -11.8%
Wheat 1 891 2 293 2 239 2 718 21.4%
Barley 575 845 769 666 -13.4%
Grains 6 299 6 494 6 016 6 038 0.4%
Oilseeds 6 131 6 265 5 424 6 137 13.1%
TOTAL 12 430 12 759 11 440 12 175 6.4%

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