Ukrainian grains export digest April 2017

8 May 2017

Total Ukrainian grains export in April 2017 made close to 3.4M tons, which has been close to April 2016 level.

Grains export in last reporting month has been significantly lower vs. 4.4M tons reported in March, though the figure is still rather good, taking into account large volume of grains export since the beginning of the season and the fact that we are close to the end of current marketing year.

According to Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture, since the beginning of current season and till 3rd May Ukrainian companies exported 37.2M tons of grains (vs. about 34.2M tons in corresponding period of previous season). Wheat export made 15.8M tons, barley 5.1M tons, corn 16.1M tons.

Corn export in April (1.95M tons) has been less active vs. March (when it made more than 3.1M tons). Average corn export price during last reporting period made USD 159/t vs. USD 154-155/t in two previous months.

Despite significant decrease of Ukrainian wheat stocks, its export in April was active and exceeded 1M tons again (having made 1.2M tons), as for barley, its export volume made close to 250k tons.

In money terms total grains export in April comprised USD 547M (vs. USD 689M in March).

As a reminder, in current season total Ukrainian grains output was record-high and is estimated (by official statistics) at 66M tons (vs. 60M tons in My2015/16). Export potential has been estimated by various sources at 39-41M tons. Taking into account current export figures we believe it can be closer to 41-42M tons.

Due to very good wheat and barley export figures we also can not exclude that total Ukrainian grains harvest in Y2016 was factually higher vs. official statistics (so there is some "unofficial" production on the market; better estimates can be made closer to the end of the season in June).

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