27 February 2017
According to Ministry of Agriculture since the beginning of current season and by February 23 Ukrainian grains export made 29M tons, thereof 2.3M already have been exported in February.
Up to reporting date wheat export comprised 13.3M tons (in February alone 0.5M tons), corn – 10.6M tons (1.6M tons in February), barley – 4.6M tons. In addition since the start of MY2016/17 Ukrainian soybeans export exceeded 1.6M tons, sunflower oil - more than 2.4M tons.
We note very good pace for Ukrainian grains&oilseeds export in current season despite logistic problems (lack of railcars) in the last months of Y2016. For wheat one of the main reasons are good demand from India (this destination accounted for about 20% of total Ukrainian wheat export) and slower than expected pace of Russian export.
According to different estimates in current season Ukrainian farmers harvested from 64M tons to 66M tons of grains. Our own estimate is in the range of 65-66M tons (but we expect problems with quality of corn harvested after large snowfalls in late November). By information of ProAgro, as of February 1 total grains stocks in Ukraine slightly exceeded 22M tons, thereof wheat – about 7M tons, barley – 1.8M tons, corn – 12.3M tons.
Taking into account grains export pace up to the moment and current stocks level, we expect that till the end of MY2016/17 (June 30) Ukraine will export about 2-2.5M of wheat and 9-9.5M of corn, so that total grains export in current season is to be close to 41M tons. In addition Ukraine is to break new records in soybeans and sunflower oil export.