Ukrainian grains export digest October 2017

11 November 2017

In October Ukrainian grains export made 3.2M tons, which has been much lower than a year ago (3.9M tons).

In money terms grains export in reporting month amounted to USD 498M (vs. USD 604M in September and USD 588M in August).

In total during first four months of new season (starting from July) Ukraine exported 13.55M tons of grains (a year ago 14.6M tons).

Main factor of relatively low export figure for October (vs. previous season) significant decrease of corn export from 1.3M tons a year ago to just 0.5M tons in reporting month. Along with it wheat export grew y-o-y by 200k tons (to 2.26M tons), barley decreased by 100k tons (to 416k tons).

The most probable reasons of corn export decline can be late start of corn harvesting in current season and generally not much favorable for Ukrainian producers market situation (in previous season significant portion of corn has been sold by farmers in the end of spring beginning of summer under forward contracts concluded for quite high price).

We also note decrease of corn crop in Ukraine from 28M tons a year ago to 25-26M tons, which should negatively influence corn export volumes.

As for grains export break-downs by type of crop since the beginning of current season, wheat export declined from 8.8M tons a year ago to 8.1M tons, for barley and corn decline made just about 150k tons (to 3.56M for barley and 1.8M tons for corn).

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