Ukrainian grains export digest September 2017

15 October 2017

In September Ukrainian grains export made 3.9M tons, flat vs. both previous month and September 2016.

In money terms grains export made USD 604M (vs. USD 588M in August and USD 400M in July).

In total during first three months of new season (starting from July) Ukraine exported 10.35M tons of grains (a year ago 10.6M tons).

As for separate crops, we note traditionally for first months of the season active barley export in reporting month it made almost 1.2M tons, for the whole July-September 3.15M tons (flat y-o-y, despite some delay of harvesting campaign in the current year and lower vs. Y2016 total barley crop at 8.6M tons (vs. 9.4M tons)).

Wheat export in September made 2.6M tons (a year ago 2.8M tons), since the beginning of MY2017/18 5.9M tons (-0.7M tons y-o-y). As a reminder according to official statistics total wheat crop in current season has been almost unchanged vs. previous years and made slightly above 26M tons. Along with it due to lower beginning wheat stocks in Ukraine (-2M tons y-o-y due to very active export in MY2016/17), total wheat supply in the beginning of new season has been lower vs. previous one (we can also note intensified completion with Russian wheat due to high crops in Russia for the second consecutive year).

Ukrainian companies continued to export corn. In reporting month it made 120k tons, in total for July-September almost 1.3M tons (in the same period of Y2016 only 500k tons).

First results of MY2017/18 corn harvesting campaign in Ukraine are not much optimistic. At the moment the crop has been harvested from 22% of total projected area, current average yield stands just at 4.2t/ha (for example, up to the date average yield for Kyiv and Cherkassy regions is by 25% lower y-o-y, for Poltava by 37% lower, for Kharkiv by 40% lower). It should be noted that weather conditions were unfavorable for corn development in these regions, harvesting campaign in some other key corn production regions has been somewhat delayed in this year, so if onward weather conditions will be favorable for harvesting, we expect significant increase of crops figures in the coming period of time.

According to our estimations in current season average corn yield is to be much less vs. last years 6.6t/ha and will be close to 6.0t/ha.

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