15 October 2017
In the first month of MY2017/18 Ukrainian companies exported 310k tons of sunoil, which has been by 40k tons higher vs. previous year.
By our estimation, main part of oil, exported in reporting period, was produced from sunseeds of previous year’s harvest (sunflower seed stock in Ukraine as of July 1 made 1.27M tons, which has been by 50% higher y-o-y).
As a reminder in MY2016/17 Ukrainian sunoil export made 5.84M tons (vs. 4.5M tons in previous season), which means that factual sunflower seeds harvest in Ukraine in Y2016 was by 1.2-1.4M tons higher than officially reported by official statistics value (13.6M tons). Taking into account presence of rather large black market for grains and oilseeds in Ukraine export is one of the most objective tool to estimate real sunflower seeds crops.
Monthly sunoil export dynamics for MY2016/17 looks as follows:
As for sunflower seeds crop in Y2017, according to official statistics, by October 3 Ukrainian farmers harvested 8.4M tons from 4.4M ha with average yield of 1.9t/ha (according to official information in previous season average yield made about 2.3t/ha, real yield has been even higher). Taking into account large share of grains&oilseeds grey market in Ukraine, we expect that in new season factual sunflower seeds crop will be higher than official one (though obviously lower than in MY2016/17).
Export of Ukrainian soybeans in September remained insignificant (37k tons for USD 13M, traditionally September is a month of non-active soybeans export, farmers are just starting soybeans harvesting). As of October 3 by official statistics soybeans have been harvested from 1M ha (53% of forecast) with the yield of 1.79t/ha.
In total in the last season Ukrainian companies exported 2.9M tons of soybeans (in Y2016 total Ukrainian soybeans harvest made 4.3M tons), which is higher than in MY2015/16 (about 2.4M tons). General soybeans export dynamics in MY2016/17 is represented on the chart below:
In September Ukrainian companies continued to actively export rapeseeds – export figure comprised 700k tons (vs. 517k tons in August and 350k tons in September 2016), in total during July-September – about 1.34M tons, which has been higher than export figure for the whole MY2015/16. Total rapeseeds crop in Ukraine in Y2017 made 2.3M tons (by about two times higher than in previous year).
Soybean oil export in last reporting month made about 9k tons for USD 6.7M, oilseeds meals (mainly sunflower meal) export - 230k tons (USD 42M).