16 October 2017
According to customs statistics data, export of Ukrainian poultry in September 2017 made 20.4k tons (USD 32M in money terms), which has been lower vs. both August (22.1k tons) and September 2016 (about 23k tons).
Along with it on positive side we note that average poultry export price keeps growing – in August-September it made USD 1.57/kg vs. about USD 1.45/kg in June-July and USD 1.33/kg in May. It can mean growth of more expensive products (such as fillet) in total export structure (for example, market leader MHP puts special focus to delivery of right products with the highest added value to the right markets and intends to increase the share of more expensive products in its total export sales).
We also note that clear worsening of poultry export dynamics during last months (please see chart below) can be related to the following factors: 1) increase of prices on domestic market; 2) in H1 2017 sales of MHP (which accounts for about 80% of total Ukrainian export) have been higher vs. its production (i.e. final inventory stock of the company largely decreased). Taking into account that currently MHP operates at close to 100% capacity utilization, in short-term the company can not maintain production at the same level as in H1, which (taking into account growth of Ukrainian domestic poultry prices) negatively impacts export.
As a reminder, in Y2018 MHP plans to gradually launch new sites at its Vinnitsa complex second stage, which should positively influence total Ukrainian poultry export volumes.
In total since the beginning of Y2017 Ukrainian companies exported 212k tons of poultry (USD 295M), which has been by 19% higher y-o-y.
In Y2016 Ukrainian poultry export made about 240k tons (vs. 161k tons in Y2015), which is USD 292.5M in money terms.
Export dynamics (in k tons) during last period of time looks as follows:
Despite worsening of export dynamics during June-September we can expect that total annual export growth for the whole Y2017 will make at least 15%.
Against a background of growing domestic prices, import of poultry into Ukraine grows – in reporting month it made 13.7k tons (USD 5.8M) vs. 10.6k tons in August and 8.8k tons in July.