10 November 2016
According to Ukrstat information Ukrainian domestic shell eggs prices surged by 50% in October driven by seasonal factors and general decrease of production in 9m 2016 (-11% y-o-y).
In addition to high domestic prices volatility, shell eggs export volumes fell in October – to about USD 2M in money terms (according to data of Ukrainian customs service) vs. USD 5M in September and monthly average of USD 3.9M in 9m 2016.
Autumn growth of shell eggs prices is usual seasonal pattern for Ukraine (production of households significantly decreases during this time of a year, so producers can increase their prices just in anticipation). For example during September-December’15 prices grew by the same (as in October 2016) 50%. On the other side growth in last year coincided with UAH devaluation, while in current year we see much lower pressure on Ukrainian national currency. Domestic retail price index dynamics for Y2015-16 look as follows:
Basing on latest information significant growth of prices led to fall in consumption, which resulted in some over-stoking of producers. So, basing on our information wholesale prices already declined from recent highs by at least 20-25%. We expect some prices stabilization at these levels (as it ensures profitability of producers and provides for some stable demand).