Weekly report February 12, 2017

12 February 2017

Despite all bearish projections iron ore prices continued to grow during the last week, agri-commodities futures increased as well

Stocks

Largest Ukrainian companies share prices weekly dynamics
Company Currency Price Weekly change, % Monthly change, %
MHP USD 8.9 -1.1% -0.1%
Kernel PLN 78.95 2.8% 6.9%
Ferrexpo GBx 163.0 4.7% 24.3%
Astarta PLN 61.63 0.4% 2.7%
Ovostar PLN 91.5 1.1% 7.6%
IMC PLN 8.95 0.2% 6.5%

Ferrexpo demonstrated the best dynamics among the largest Ukrainian public companies during last week, its share price increased by 4.7% and finished the week at GBX 163. As despite all bearish projections iron ore spot price index fluctuates around USD 80/t for more than two months (having reached the highest value for the latest 2.5 years on Friday), pellets premiums remain at rather good level, it is estimated that Ferrexpo monthly EBITDA now makes about USD 50M.

Taking into account reported cash position of the company in the end of Y2016 at USD 145M, medium-term liquidity position of the company improves (in Y2017 the company is to repay slightly more than USD 200M of debt, in Y2018 USD 320M). During last week S&P increased its credit rating of Ferrexpo up to B-.

Recently principal shareholder of Ferrexpo Mr. Konstantin Zhevago in its interview to Ukrainian magazine Novoye Vremya stated that the company has no plans for Eurobonds issuance for the nearest future (some time ago management of the company considered such possibility to refinance maturing debt).

As for the largest Ukrainian public companies traded on Warsaw Stock Exchange, Kernel grew by 2.8%, volatility of the other companies share prices has been low.

Commodities

After decrease to close to USD 80/t in the beginning of the week, starting from Tuesday iron ore continued its rally, reaching on Friday USD 86.6/ton the highest level for the last 2.5 years, steel prices in China remain close to local highs as well.

Despite relatively neutral USDA report issued on the last week (Ukrainian grains export estimates were increased by 1.5M tons up to 40.4M tons), corn and wheat prices slightly grew on CME, corn dynamics during last year is represented on the chart below:

World corn price dynamics February 2017

In Ukrainian ports corn prices have been relatively stable at USD 152-154/t, wheat slightly grew up to USD 157-168/t, soybeans closed the week at USD 375-380/t, sunflower oil USD 740/t.

Spot sugar prices remain relatively stable at USD 540/t (London market)

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Ukrainian Y2016 agri-commodities export digest
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Company Price, USD Market Cap Change,%
MHP
Kernel
Ferrexpo
Astarta
Ovostar

Type Price Weekly change,% Annual change,%
Corn CBOT
Wheat CBOT
Iron Ore
Crude Oil

Currency Rate Weekly change,% Annual change,%
USD/UAH
EUR/USD
USD/RUR