21 February 2017
According to Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture estimates sprouts of winter crops appeared throughout 6.8M ha or 95% of planted area, thereof 82% (5.6M ha) are in good and satisfactory conditions. It corresponds to last year’s statistics for the same period of time.
At the same time we can note that because of abundant snowfalls we see good levels of precipitation in soil (better than in previous year), which means practically no risk from this side for sprouts development in March – middle of April (from this perspective situation in current year is better vs. previous one).
So, on our opinion, at the moment main risks for winter crops in Ukraine can be 1) frosts after starting of sprouts development in March; 2) lack of rains in the end of April – May. If these risks will not materialize Ukraine can demonstrate another good level of winter crops yields in new season.
Historical winter wheat yields in Ukraine are represented on the chart below: