1 April 2023

In general, since the beginning of the season, Ukrainian grain exports comprised 37.4 million tons, which is 17% less than in the same period of the 2021/22 season.

According to preliminary information from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine, Ukraine exported 5.34 million tons of grains in March, which is 150,000 tons more than in February. In general, exports in March became the largest monthly volume of Ukrainian grain exports since the beginning of the large-scale invasion in February 2022.

The comparison with March 2022 does not make any sense, since a year ago all Ukrainian exports were almost stopped (grain exports made only about 200,000 tons in total).

The biggest factor affecting grain exports in March was the formal expiration of the agreement on the grain corridor from Ukrainian ports, so exporters tried to speed up deliveries before the end of the agreement.

Since the agreement was extended (the extension period remains a factor of uncertainty - 60 or 120 days), now we can expect a fairly active export of Ukrainian grain at least until mid-May.

In the reporting month, as was the case in previous periods, the largest share in grain export belonged to corn (3.6 million tons vs. 3.3 million tons in February). In general, since the beginning of the season, Ukraine exported 22.2 million tons of corn, which is 1.6 million tons more than in the same period of the previous season (in the whole 2021/22 marketing year Ukrainian corn exports amounted to 23.4 million tons, in the 2020/21 season - 23.2 million tons).

The total corn harvest in 2022/23 was about 27 million tons, so taking into account beginning stocks from 2021 record-high harvest (according to our estimates, 11-12 million tons), we maintain our estimates regarding the ability of our country to export in the current season an additional 8-9 million tons, so the total the export of corn in the 2022/23 season may amount to 30-31 million tons.

Wheat exports in March showed a slight decrease compared to the previous month and amounted to about 1.55 million tons. Since the beginning of the season, Ukraine exported a total of 12.9 million tons of wheat (-5.6 million tons compared to the previous year). In the next three months, Ukrainian wheat exports may add up to 3-4 million tons, but the prospects for the next season do not look very encouraging.

Sown areas under winter wheat in the 2023/24 season comprised 3.8 million hectares (the total area of wheat harvesting last year was 4.7 million hectares), so this year's harvest will decrease (if there are no bad weather "surprises") to 16-17 million tons, total export potential - up to 10 million tons.

General Ukrainian grains export statistics for the last several years is available here.

Ukrainian grains growing statistics (corn, wheat, sunflower seeds, soybeans - sown area, yields, total output) is available here.