3 December 2023
Ukrainian grain exports in November 2023 were the largest since April of this year.
With the increase in exports through the temporary corridor out of Ukrainian Black Sea ports, the general volumes of Ukrainian grain exports are increasing as well.
According to preliminary data of the Ministry of Agriculture, in November 2023, Ukrainian companies exported more than 3.8 million tons of grains, which significantly exceeds the exports figures of recent months (during July-October, the average monthly export figure was only about 2.3 million tons, in October - 2.5 million tons).
In the reporting month, 1.3 million tons of wheat (almost unchanged compared to October), 2.4 million tons of corn (1.1 million tons in October) and 190 thousand tons of barley were exported.
Comparing with previous year, in November 2022, a total of 4.6 million tons of grains were exported, including 1.8 million tons of wheat, 2.5 million tons of corn, and 360,000 tons of barley. In Y2022 exports through deep-sea ports took place within the grain corridor deal brokered by the UN and Turkey.
As for the overall export figures since the beginning of the season, since July 2023, Ukraine has exported almost 13 million tons of grain (17.8 million tons during July-November 2022).
Grain prices in Ukraine remain low (although rising in recent weeks) even after the resumption of exports through deep-sea ports. The average corn export price in November was approximately $155/t, compared to $215/t a year ago (November 2022).
The dynamics of changes in the average price of corn exports (per 1 ton), starting from June 2022, is shown in the graph below:
We would like to remind you that according to our estimates, in case of stable operation of Ukrainian Black Sea ports, in the current season, Ukraine can potentially export 15 million tons of wheat (17 million tons in the 2022/23 season) and 25 million tons of corn (29 million tons).
As of November 30, more than 26 million tons of corn were harvested in Ukraine (from 85% of total forecast area). Currently, weather conditions prevent the continuation of harvesting, so it is likely that some corn may be harvested in 2024.