April 3, 2024
Ukrainian export of corn in the reporting month amounted to 2.8 million tons, wheat - 2.1 million tons, barley - 340 thousand tons.
In March 2024, Ukraine's grain exports somewhat decreased vs. previous month (which was a record since the beginning of the full-scale invasion), but in general remained active.
According to preliminary data from Ministry of Agriculture, the total export of grain from Ukraine in the reporting month amounted to almost 5.2 million tons (in February 2024 - 5.8 million tons, in March 2023 - 5.7 million tons).
Since the beginning of 2023/24 season (July-March), Ukraine exported 34.6 million tons of grain, 8% less than in the previous marketing year. The main reason for the decrease is that in the 2022/23 season, Ukrainian deep-sea ports started working at the end of August (as part of the grain corridor with the participation of the UN and Turkey), in the 2023/24 season - at the end of October.
Since the beginning of the 2023/24 season and by the current moment, almost 19 million tons of corn have been exported (a year ago - 22.4 million tons), wheat - 13.8 million tons (13 million tons), barley - 2 million tons (2.3 million tons).
The average price of Ukrainian corn exports in March 2024 was $154/t, which is less than in January and February (reflecting the general decline in global prices), but corresponds to the average prices of Ukrainian export in November-December.
The dynamics of average export prices for Ukrainian corn in recent years is as follows:
Global corn prices decreased by 25-30% during April-August 2023, then, starting from September and until the end of the year, they remained relatively stable, but already at the beginning of 2024 they decreased again - by about 15%. Since the beginning of March, it is possible to observe an increase in the global demand for corn and some correction of the market, but whether it will be long-lasting - only time will tell.
Our estimates remain unchanged compared to the forecasts of a month ago - if the stable operation of Ukrainian Black Sea ports continues in the current season, Ukraine will be able to export 15-16 million tons of wheat (17 million tons in the 2022/23 season) and 26-27 million tons of corn (29 million tons).