2 January 2024

Since the beginning of MY2023/24 Ukrainian grains export exceeded 18 million tons, export prices remain low.

In December 2023, Ukrainian grain exports through deep-sea ports showed a significant increase compared to previous months.

As a result according to preliminary data from Ministry of Agriculture, the total export of grain from Ukraine in the reporting month amounted to 5.3 million tons, which is the second highest monthly figure since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, second only to March 2023.

Compared to November, export grew by 37%, and vs. December 2022 – by 9%.

In total, since the beginning of the season (July-December), Ukraine exported 18.3 million tons of grain, 19% less than in the previous marketing year. 9.6 million tons of corn were exported (12.6 million tons a year ago), 7.6 million tons of wheat (8.4 million tons), and 1.1 million tons of barley (1.6 million tons).

Due to the drop in world prices earlier during Y2023, grain prices in Ukraine remain low even after the resumption of exports through deep-sea ports:

According to our estimates, in case of stable operation of Ukrainian Black Sea ports, in the current season Ukraine will be able to export 15 million tons of wheat (17 million tons in the 2022/23 season) and 25 million tons of corn (29 million tons). To achieve these volumes by June 2024, it will be enough to export about 4 million tons per month.

The total max export potential of Ukraine in the current season is 28-30 million tons of corn and 17-18 million tons of wheat.

As of end of December, more than 28 million tons of corn were harvested in Ukraine (from about 90% of total forecast area).