3 February 2024

In January 2024 Ukrainian grain exports again exceeded 5 million tons, and were 26% higher than last year

In January 2024, Ukrainian grain exports through deep-sea Black Sea ports remained quite active.

According to preliminary data from Minagro, the total export of grain from Ukraine in the reporting month amounted to 5.3 million tons, which is almost flat vs. the figure of the previous month and is the third largest volume of grain export in one month since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.

Compared to January 2023, the growth made 26% (a year ago, Ukraine exported grain within the framework of the grain corridor organized with the support of Turkey and the UN).

In total, since the beginning of the season (July 2023 - January 2024), Ukraine exported 23.6 million tons of grain, 12% less than in the corresponding period of the previous marketing year. The export of corn amounted to 13 million tons (15.3 million tons a year ago), wheat - 9.2 million tons (9.7 million tons), barley - 1.4 million tons (1.8 million tons).

The average export price in January increased compared to previous months (+$10/t), but remains significantly lower y-o-y:

According to our estimates, based on the operating report of the Kernel company, this company became the largest exporter of grain from Ukraine during the first half of the season with a share of approximately 10% (after the resumption of exports through deep-sea ports, the share was already 14-15%).

Also according to our estimates, in case of stable operation of Ukrainian Black Sea ports, in the current season Ukraine will be able to export 15 million tons of wheat (17 million tons in the 2022/23 season) and 25 million tons of corn (29 million tons).

The total export potential of Ukraine in the current season is 28-30 million tons of corn and 17-18 million tons of wheat.