4 May 2023
In April 2023, Ukraine exported 542,000 tons of sunflower oil, which exceeds the figure of the previous month, and is the largest value of exports since January 2022.
According to preliminary data, Ukrainian sunflower oil exports in April amounted to 542,000 tons, which is 18,000 tons more than the previous month.
The increase in exports took place despite all the obstacles to the operation of the grain corridor from Ukrainian Black Sea ports, as well as restrictions on exports via the Ukrainian western border imposed by some European countries.
The main importers of Ukrainian sunflower oil in the reporting month were Turkey, China and Romania (according to our estimates, the latter subsequently re-exported a significant share of the imported volume).
The monthly dynamics of exports during the last two seasons is shown in the graph below:
In total, since the beginning of the 2022/23 season, Ukrainian sunflower oil exports amounted to more than 3.7 million tons. Our previous estimates of total Ukrainian sunoil exports in the current season amounted to 4.5 million tons (compared to USDA estimates at the level of 4 million tons). Therefore, in order to achieve our export estimates for the season, Ukraine should export about 750,000 tons of oil in the next four months, which seems more than realistic even taking into account all arising issues.
Also interesting is the fact that sunflower export almost stopped in April - in the reporting month, it amounted to only 39,000 tons, compared to 200,000 tons in March.
This fact is positive for the volume of processing and oil output, although it may indicate a reduction in the profitability of the crushers (sunflower export is possible only in the case of relatively low domestic prices for sunflower vs. export price, which means a relatively high crushing margin).
In total, since the beginning of the season, Ukraine has exported 1.85 thousand tons of sunflowers (our preliminary expectations for the total export of sunflowers for the season were 2 million tons).
Our recent overview of the Ukrainian sunflower seeds and oil market is available at the link.