March 2, 2024

Ukrainian grain exports in February became the largest volume of exports in one month since the beginning of the full-scale war.

In February 2024, Ukrainian exports of grain through deep-sea Black Sea ports continued to be very active.

According to preliminary data of Minagro, the total export of grain from Ukraine in the reporting month amounted to 5.8 million tons, which is the highest volume of grain export in one month since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.

Compared to January, export growth was almost 500,000 tons or 9%, and from February 2023 – 12%.

In total, since the beginning of the season (July-February), Ukraine exported 29.4 million tons of grain, 8% less than in the previous marketing year. The main reason for the decrease is that in the 2022/23 season, Ukrainian deep-sea ports started working at the end of August (as part of the grain corridor brokered by the UN and Turkey), in the 2023/24 season - at the end of October.

Since the beginning of the 2023/24 season by the end of February, 16 million tons of corn have been exported (18.6 million tons a year ago), 11.8 million tons of wheat (11.3 million tons), and 1.6 million tons of barley (2.0 million tons).

The dynamics of average export prices for corn in recent years is as follows:

As for global corn prices, after a significant decrease during April-August 2023 (by 25-30%), they remained relatively stable from September until the end of Y2023, but already in 2024 they decreased again by about 15% (so in twelve months - from February 2023 to February 2024 - the total decrease in prices made about 40%).

According to our estimates, in case of stable operation of Ukrainian Black Sea ports, in the current season Ukraine will be able to export 15-16 million tons of wheat (17 million tons in the 2022/23 season) and 26-27 million tons of corn (29 million tons). To achieve these figures by June 2024, it will be enough to export about 3.5-4 million tons per month.

The total export potential of Ukraine in the current season is 28-30 million tons of corn and 17-18 million tons of wheat.

As of the end of February 2024, 29 million tons of corn have been harvested in Ukraine, and 8% of the planned areas remain in fields.