3 January 2024

Since the beginning of the new 2023/24 season, Ukrainian companies have exported 1.6 million tons of soybeans - by one-third higher y-o-y.

According to preliminary data from customs statistics, in December 2023, Ukrainian soybean exports amounted to 436,000 tons, which is lower than the record for several recent years volume in November (528,000 tons), but is 22% higher than in December 2022.

In total, since the beginning of the 2023/24 season (September 2023), Ukrainian companies have exported 1.6 million tons of soybeans, compared to last year's figure of 1.2 million tons.

For the calendar year 2023, Ukrainian soybean exports amounted to 3.5 million tons, compared to 2 million tons in 2022 and only 1.1 million tons in 2021.

The main factors of export growth in the new season are the record harvest of this crop in 2023 at the level of 4.8 million tons (the previous one was set in 2018 at the level of 4.5 million tons, the harvest in 2022 – 3.7 million tons), as well as the fact that in in the first half of the 2023/24 season, soy was one of the most profitable crops for Ukrainian farmers. Producers were more willing to sell soybeans, postponing the sale of less profitable crops.

Even despite the relatively low soybean stocks at the beginning of the new season, it can be predicted that in the 2023/24 marketing year, Ukrainian soybean exports will remain at a level close to the record level of the 2022/23 season - 3.1 million tons (very high initial stocks of soybeans became the main the reason for the record export of soybeans in the previous season).

According to our estimates, the volume of soybean processing in the current season will be 1.5-1.6 million tons.

From the point of view of exports of soybean processing products, the season started quite well. The export of soybean oil in December amounted to 26,000 tons, in the first four months of the new season - 108,000 tons (for comparison, for September-December 2022 - 86,000 tons). In general, during the 2022/23 season, Ukraine exported approximately 277,000 tons of soybean oil (an average of 23,000 tons per month), which is equivalent to 1.4-1.5 million tons of soybeans.

The export of soybean meal in the first four months of the new season amounted to 260,000 tons against 158,000 tons in the corresponding period of the previous year.

Our recent overview of the Ukrainian soybean market can be found at the link.